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[기사원문] Financial Stability beyond Greece: Making the most out of the European Stabilisation Mechanism
[2호] 2010년 06월 01일 (화) Daniel Gros, Thomas M economyinsight@hani.co.kr
The European Stabilisation Mechanism is a major initiative, but is it enough? This column argues that more is needed. All EU bank supervisors should conduct stress tests to gauge their banks’ exposure to risky sovereign debt; those who fail should be re-capitalised or closed to ring-fence the problem. The ‘Mechanism’ should also be transformed into an institution that manages the Eurozone’s rescue contributions, supervises conditionality, and sets up mechanisms for orderly debt rescheduling should austerity programmes fail. Reflecting on his experience with the multiple financial crises of the 1990s, then-Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers wrote that policymakers facing a crisis tend to go through a process reminiscent of the five stages of grief (Summers 2000): The process starts with denial that a crisis could be taking place. This is followed by anger, with a tendency to assign blame (speculators, rating agencies, etc.). Then there is the bargaining (with the markets, seen as potential saviours). Fourth comes despair, leading eventually to the decision to call for help (IMF, EU). It is finally only in the fifth stage – acceptance – that the way is opened to a credible plan. As this crisis escalated to its climax in early May, the European Council seems to have been stuck between the first two stages. At first its position was that no crisis could arise because it (the European Council) was ready to intervene. Then it insisted that Greece had a credible programme in place and blamed the spread of the contagion to Portugal and Spain on immoral speculation. Our own evaluation of Spain’s fundamentals...
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